Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? | 68% YES | 32% NO |
Mount Etna, Europe's most active volcano, sits on Sicily's eastern coast and has erupted frequently throughout recorded history. The question here concerns whether Etna will produce an eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index 2 or higher—roughly equivalent to a moderate explosive event—between now and the end of 2026. VEI 2 eruptions typically involve ash columns reaching 5–15 kilometres and localised ashfall; Etna has exceeded this threshold multiple times in recent decades, including in 2002–2003 and 2011–2012.
The current 53% implied probability reflects Etna's documented activity patterns. Over the past two decades, Etna has entered eruptive phases lasting months to years, interspersed with quieter periods. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program records show VEI 2+ eruptions occurring roughly every 3–5 years on average, though timing remains unpredictable. The volcano's baseline activity—persistent degassing and smaller lava fountaining—does not guarantee escalation to VEI 2, making the probability assessment genuinely uncertain rather than heavily skewed either direction.
Traders should monitor real-time seismic data from Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), which operates monitoring stations on Etna and publishes weekly activity summaries. Recent volcanic tremor patterns, ground deformation measurements, and gas emissions serve as leading indicators of potential eruption escalation. The resolution source—the Smithsonian's GVP database—typically updates eruption classifications within weeks of occurrence, though formal VEI assignments occasionally require additional analysis. The Polymarket order book's current pricing reflects baseline expectations; significant shifts in INGV alerts or observable precursory activity would likely move the probability substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16 in lifetime turnover and $13 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 68%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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