Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <3 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| 7-9 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 10-12 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| >15 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 4-6 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| 13-15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2026 midterm cycle will test Republican House incumbents through primary contests running March to September, with the general election on 3 November. The market resolves based on how many sitting Republican representatives fail to secure their party's nomination, including those who withdraw after officially registering. The 40% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about primary dynamics two years out, when candidate recruitment, redistricting effects, and internal party dynamics remain partially unformed.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for predicting primary incumbent defeats. In 2022, only four Republican House incumbents lost primaries nationally, representing roughly 1% of the caucus. The 2020 cycle saw three Republican incumbent primary losses. These low rates reflect structural advantages of incumbency—name recognition, fundraising capacity, and establishment backing—though they vary significantly by state and district competitiveness. The current probability suggests traders expect notably higher turnover than recent cycles, possibly reflecting anticipated retirements, redistricting consequences, or elevated intra-party conflict.
Key catalysts will emerge as the cycle develops. Announcement windows for candidate entry typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, revealing which seats face genuine primary contests versus coronations. Redistricting outcomes in states like Texas and Florida will clarify which districts become more or less competitive. Party leadership decisions on endorsements and resource allocation—particularly regarding Trump-aligned versus establishment candidates—will shape incumbent vulnerability. FEC filings and polling data from spring 2026 onwards will provide concrete signals about competitive primary fields.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $800 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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