Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Ethereum's price movement on 2 June 2026, settling against Chainlink's ETH/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 51% implied probability reflects near-parity between traders expecting upward and downward movement across this narrow timeframe, with current order book activity on Polymarket pricing the outcome as essentially a coin flip.
Five-minute price windows in crypto typically exhibit low directional conviction outside of scheduled events or news releases. Historical volatility patterns suggest that intraday micro-windows of this length rarely correlate strongly with broader market sentiment; instead, they tend to reflect order flow dynamics, algorithmic trading activity, and the mechanics of the specific price oracle being used. Chainlink's ETH/USD feed aggregates data from multiple exchanges, which can occasionally lag spot prices by seconds depending on network conditions and feed update frequency. Traders should note that this settlement mechanism introduces a dependency on Chainlink's infrastructure rather than a single exchange's tape.
The critical variable for this specific window will be whether any material announcements or macroeconomic data releases occur near the 7:40AM ET timestamp. US economic calendars occasionally feature releases in early morning hours, and crypto markets can exhibit sharp reactions to Federal Reserve communications or inflation data. Additionally, overnight Asian trading activity and any overnight developments in traditional markets could establish momentum that carries into the New York morning session. Absent scheduled catalysts, the five-minute outcome will likely depend on technical order placement and the depth of liquidity available on Polymarket's order book at settlement time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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