Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Dogecoin's price movement on 10 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The resolution hinges on whether the Chainlink price at 4:05AM ET exceeds or equals the price at 4:00AM ET—a narrow timeframe where typical intraday volatility becomes the primary driver. The current order book on Polymarket shows the crowd assigning 100% implied probability to an upward or flat movement, reflecting either extreme confidence in upward momentum or minimal liquidity at the ask side, which often produces distorted probabilities in thin markets.
Five-minute price windows for cryptocurrencies rarely exhibit directional bias without specific catalysts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-term DOGE movements correlate with broader Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility rather than Dogecoin-specific news. The 4:00AM ET slot falls outside US market hours and overlaps with Asian trading sessions, when crypto volume typically contracts. Chainlink's price feed aggregates data from multiple exchanges, smoothing some exchange-specific anomalies but introducing slight latency relative to spot prices.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements or social media activity from prominent Dogecoin advocates occurs near the settlement window. Broader crypto market movements—particularly Bitcoin's direction—will likely dominate price action during this period. The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny; such extremes often indicate either genuine directional conviction or insufficient order book depth, both of which carry distinct risk profiles for counterparties.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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