Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Dogecoin's price according to Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed is higher or equal at 12:00AM ET on 9 May 2026 compared to 11:55PM ET on 8 May 2026. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility in one of cryptocurrency's most actively traded assets, with settlement contingent on Chainlink's oracle pricing rather than spot market rates across exchanges.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in a downward move or flat close during this specific interval. Five-minute price windows in crypto markets typically exhibit near-random walk behaviour, with historical precedent suggesting such tight timeframes rarely sustain directional conviction. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on volatile assets show that extreme probabilities (below 5% or above 95%) often indicate either genuine information asymmetry or illiquidity in the order book rather than genuine market consensus. The absence of any YES bids suggests minimal conviction from traders willing to back an upward close.
Dogecoin's price action depends on broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin's movement, which typically anchors altcoin behaviour. Traders should monitor any major announcements regarding Elon Musk or Tesla's cryptocurrency holdings, regulatory developments affecting crypto trading, or significant Bitcoin price moves in the hours preceding settlement. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple exchanges with a slight lag, meaning spot market movements may not immediately reflect in the oracle price used for settlement. The tight five-minute window leaves minimal time for catalysts to materialise, making this market primarily sensitive to existing order flow and technical positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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