Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures whether BNB trades higher or lower across a five-minute window on 10 May 2026, from 4:10 to 4:15 AM Eastern Time, using Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed as the settlement source. The 0% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders have priced in an expectation of downward or flat movement during this specific early-morning UTC window. The extremely tight five-minute resolution window means price discovery depends on actual trading activity and volatility during an off-peak period rather than broader market sentiment.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency are typically driven by microstructure dynamics—order flow imbalances, liquidations, and algorithmic trading—rather than fundamental catalysts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-duration BNB contracts rarely see meaningful directional conviction in their implied probabilities unless a scheduled announcement or market-moving event coincides with the settlement window. The current 0% probability indicates traders view downside or stasis as more probable than appreciation, though the illiquidity of such narrow time windows means order book depth may be shallow.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled blockchain upgrades, exchange listings, or macroeconomic data releases fall within or immediately precede this window. The early-morning ET timing (late morning UTC) does not align with major US market opens or Asian market closes, reducing the likelihood of exogenous shocks. Chainlink's data feed itself carries no special maintenance windows scheduled for this period based on recent announcements, so resolution should reflect genuine spot price movement rather than feed disruptions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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