Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether BNB's price on the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream will be higher or equal at 5:30PM ET on 31 May 2026 compared to 5:15PM ET that same day. The 15-minute window captures intraday volatility in one of the largest cryptocurrency assets by market capitalisation. Settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot exchange prices, which can occasionally diverge due to latency or data aggregation differences across venues.
The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for "Up," indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that BNB will not decline during this specific quarter-hour. Such extreme probabilities on short-duration price movements are uncommon and typically signal either very thin liquidity on the "Down" side or a structural imbalance in how traders are positioning. Historical precedent shows that 15-minute price windows rarely settle at exactly zero probability for either direction, as even modest bid-ask spreads or slippage can shift prices marginally in either direction. The absence of meaningful "Down" orders suggests either risk-off positioning elsewhere in crypto markets or insufficient depth to support contrarian bets.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price action in the days preceding 31 May, particularly any major announcements from Binance or regulatory developments affecting the BNB ecosystem. Chainlink data feeds can occasionally lag spot markets by seconds during high-volatility periods, so watching real-time price feeds from major exchanges in the minutes before settlement will be instructive. Crypto markets operate continuously, meaning geopolitical or macroeconomic events overnight could shift positioning substantially before the settlement window opens.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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