Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | 37% YES | 63% NO |
The question centres on whether Ukraine and Russia will execute any formal written agreement—whether a full peace treaty, ceasefire, framework accord, or mediated text—that commits both parties to ending hostilities or pursuing a defined peace process by the end of 2026. The settlement criteria are deliberately broad, encompassing any binding instrument that establishes either an immediate cessation of fighting or a structured pathway toward normalisation with stated principles and timelines. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 38% probability of "Yes," reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether diplomatic channels will yield a signed agreement within the next two years.
Historical precedent suggests that major interstate conflicts rarely resolve through formal agreements within short timeframes. The Russo-Georgian war (2008) saw no comprehensive peace treaty; the Minsk agreements (2014–2015) on eastern Ukraine were repeatedly violated and never fully implemented. Conversely, the Iran nuclear deal (2015) and the Abraham Accords (2020) demonstrate that multilateral or bilateral frameworks can be negotiated and signed within months under sufficient political pressure. The current 38% probability reflects scepticism about near-term resolution whilst acknowledging that diplomatic breakthroughs, though uncommon, remain plausible.
Traders should monitor announcements from the UN, OSCE, and major powers regarding peace talks or mediation efforts. Recent reporting indicates that various parties—including Turkey, China, and European states—have proposed or explored negotiation frameworks, though no formal talks have yet materialised at scale. The timing of any U.S. administration transition or shifts in military aid commitments could alter incentive structures for both sides. Absence of active negotiations by mid-2025 would substantially reduce the probability of a signed agreement by year-end 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$336K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $97K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 37%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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