Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Joshua Van | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Manel Kape | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Tatsuro Taira | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Tim Elliott | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fighter A | — | |
| Brandon Moreno | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The UFC Flyweight division will have crowned a champion by the end of 2026, and traders are currently pricing a 40% probability that this champion will be the same fighter holding the belt on 31 December 2026. The current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, has held the title since April 2023 and successfully defended it multiple times. The market's 40% YES probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Pantoja retains the belt through the full two-year window or whether a challenger dethrones him.
Historical precedent suggests flyweight title reigns vary considerably in duration. Demetrious Johnson held the original UFC Flyweight championship for nearly six years, whilst more recent champions like Henry Cejudo and Deiveson Figueiredo experienced shorter tenures with multiple title changes. Pantoja's current reign of roughly two years places him in the mid-range of historical durability, making both retention and loss plausible outcomes by year-end 2026.
Traders should monitor the UFC's scheduling announcements for Pantoja's title defences throughout 2025 and 2026, as injury, performance decline, or unexpected matchup results could shift the probability substantially. The division's challenger pool—including contenders like Brandon Moreno and others—will shape the competitive landscape. Any announcement of a title fight, particularly if Pantoja faces an undefeated or surging contender, typically moves markets. The Polymarket order book currently reflects these uncertainties, with the 40% YES price suggesting roughly even odds between retention and a title change over the settlement period.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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