Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed individual who hosts the first White House Press Briefing after Karoline Leavitt goes on leave. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Karoline Leavitt's leave is not announced, this market will resolve according to the next individual excepting Karoline Leavitt who hosts a White House Press Briefing as listed on the official schedule. If Karoline Leavitt does not go on leave, or if no White House Press Briefings occur between the beginning of Leavitt's leave and May 31, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, if Leavitt resigns or otherwise leaves her position, it will qualify as a leave.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Marco Rubio | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Person AA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Stephen Miller | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Scott Bessent | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Peter Hegseth | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Brooke Rollins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Linda McMahon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Karoline Leavitt assumed the role of White House Press Secretary in January 2025 following Donald Trump's return to office. This market concerns whether a substitute will conduct the first official press briefing during any period when Leavitt takes leave, with settlement dependent on identifying which named individual hosts that briefing. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that at least one substitute briefing will occur before the May 2026 deadline, though the specific identity of that substitute remains uncertain.
Historical precedent suggests press secretaries regularly take leave, particularly during extended administrations. During Trump's first term, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Stephanie Grisham both had periods where deputy press secretaries conducted briefings. The current 100% probability on the "yes" outcome indicates traders view it as near-certain that Leavitt will take some form of leave within the settlement window, making a substitute briefing highly probable rather than speculative.
Traders monitoring this market should track official White House scheduling announcements and any public statements regarding Leavitt's planned absences. The specific substitute's identity depends on internal White House personnel decisions that are not typically announced in advance. Key variables include the duration and timing of any leave, which would determine whether formal briefings occur during that period, and the White House's choice of acting press secretary—decisions that remain opaque until officially scheduled.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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