Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | 11% YES | 90% NO |
JD Vance, the current Vice President-elect under Donald Trump, has not publicly ruled out a 2028 presidential run. The market is pricing an 11% probability that Vance will issue a definitive announcement between now and the end of 2026 stating he will not seek the presidency in 2028. Such an announcement would need to be unambiguous—mere statements about not having decided are insufficient for resolution. The current order book reflects substantial scepticism that Vance will voluntarily foreclose this option during the next two years.
Historical precedent suggests sitting Vice Presidents rarely announce non-candidacy this far in advance. George H.W. Bush ran after Reagan; Mike Pence did not announce withdrawal until late 2023, months before the 2024 election. Vance would be unusually early in publicly eliminating himself from consideration, particularly given Trump's influence over Republican primary dynamics and Vance's position as potential heir apparent. The 11% probability reflects the structural rarity of such early withdrawals rather than specific signals of imminent non-candidacy.
Key catalysts include Vance's public statements during Trump's second term, any formal campaign announcements by other Republicans, and developments affecting Trump's own political standing. Traders should monitor Vance's positioning within the administration and any explicit statements about his future ambitions. The settlement window closes at year-end 2026, meaning the market resolves based on announcements made across Trump's first two years back in office, when Vance's trajectory and political calculations will become clearer.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $77K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 11%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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