Trade: Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if freestyle skier Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $14K
- Total Volume
- $43K
- 24h Volume
- $106
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Eileen Gu, the Olympic freestyle skier who competes for China, holds U.S. citizenship acquired through her American mother. The market assesses the probability that the Trump administration revokes her citizenship before the end of 2026. Current order book pricing implies a 5% chance of revocation, reflecting the low historical precedent for citizenship rescission in the United States outside of fraud or renunciation cases.
Citizenship revocation in the U.S. is exceptionally rare and typically requires either fraudulent naturalisation or voluntary renunciation. No sitting U.S. president has revoked citizenship for political reasons in modern history. The Trump administration's first term (2017–2021) did not pursue such actions despite rhetoric around citizenship policy. Comparable cases involve individuals stripped of citizenship for material misrepresentation during naturalisation, a substantially different legal basis than political disagreement or dual allegiance.
Traders should monitor statements from the Trump administration regarding citizenship policy, any legislative proposals targeting dual nationals, and Gu's public statements or competitive activities. The timeline to end-2026 encompasses roughly two years of potential policy shifts. Legal challenges to any revocation attempt would likely extend resolution timelines significantly. Recent reporting on Trump's second-term priorities has focused on immigration enforcement and border policy rather than citizenship rescission mechanisms, though executive actions on related matters remain possible.
Wikipedia Context
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Eileen GuEileen Feng Gu, also known by her Chinese name Gu Ailing (谷爱凌), is a Chinese-American freestyle skier and model. She has represented China in halfpipe, slopestyle, and big air events since the 2018–19 season. With three gold and three silver medals, Gu is the most decorated freestyle skier in Olympic history.
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Eileen GunnEileen Gunn is an American science fiction author and editor based in Seattle, Washington, who began publishing in 1978. Her story "Coming to Terms", inspired, in part, by a friendship with Avram Davidson, won the Nebula Award for Best Short Story in 2004. Two other stories were nominated for the Hugo Award: "Stable Strategies for Middle Management" and "Com
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Eileen Guppy
Eileen Mary Guppy MBE was a British geologist, petrologist, and analytical chemist. She was the first female geologist appointed to the scientific staff of the Geological Survey of Great Britain. In 1966, after 39 years of service, Guppy became the first female staff member of the survey to be appointed MBE.
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Eileen Guggenheim
Eileen Guggenheim is an American art historian and academic administrator. She is the chair of the board of trustees for the New York Academy of Art (NYAA) and previously served as the institution's Dean of Students. Guggenheim has been a prominent figure in the New York art world and has received significant media attention regarding her professional associ
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 5% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $2000 if YES resolves true — a 1900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$43K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $106 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for " Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on " Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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