Trade: Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $0
Market outcomes
| J.D. Vance | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Scott Bessent | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Doug Burgum | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Doug Collins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kristi Noem | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Mike Waltz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Trump's second administration began in January 2025 with a full Cabinet complement. This market tracks when the first Cabinet member departs, whether through resignation, removal, or other departure from office. The settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, capturing roughly two years of potential turnover. An announcement of departure triggers immediate resolution, regardless of the effective date.
Cabinet turnover during presidential administrations varies considerably based on policy disagreements, personal circumstances, and political pressures. Trump's first term (2017–2021) saw notably high Cabinet churn, with 15 Cabinet-level departures across four years—roughly one every three months. By contrast, Biden's administration experienced slower turnover through its first two years. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders currently assess near-zero likelihood of a departure announcement before year-end 2026, though this reflects the current moment's consensus rather than a prediction of stability.
Traders should monitor several categories of catalysts: policy conflicts within the administration, particularly around tariffs, immigration enforcement, or foreign policy; personnel disputes or investigations affecting Cabinet members; and broader political developments that might prompt strategic departures. Recent reporting on internal administration tensions and Cabinet member public disagreements provides baseline context for assessing departure risk. The market's current pricing may shift substantially if credible reporting emerges of friction between the President and specific Cabinet officials, or if external events create pressure for personnel changes.
Wikipedia Context
-
Next Level Chef (American TV series)Next Level Chef is an American culinary reality competition television series that premiered on Fox on January 2, 2022, with judges Gordon Ramsay, Nyesha Arrington, and Richard Blais. In February 2025, the series was renewed for a fifth and sixth season, with the fifth season premiering in January 2026. A holiday spin-off, Next Level Baker, premiered in Dece
-
Next Level (Aespa song)"Next Level" is a song recorded by South Korean girl group Aespa, which remakes A$ton Wyld's song of the same name. It was released digitally on May 17, 2021, by SM Entertainment. Composed by Yoo Young-jin, Adam McInnis, Mario Marchetti, and Sophie Curtis, the track is described as a dance and hip hop song with an upbeat new jack swing bridge. The song is a
-
Next Level Sports
Next Level Sports is an American sports-oriented cable and satellite television channel. The network also operates an online presence under the alternate brand For the Fans (FTF).
-
Next Level (Ayumi Hamasaki album)Next Level is the tenth studio album by Japanese recording artist Ayumi Hamasaki. It was released through Avex Trax on March 25, 2009 in five physical formats, and for digital consumption. The album was solely produced by Avex Trax owner Max Matsuura, whereas the album's content was written by Hamasaki herself. Additionally, it marks a return for several com
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: