Trade: Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by...?

Opened 12 February 2026 · Settles 31 December 2026 · 17 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $394K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $110K

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Market outcomes

March 31	0% YES	100% NO
December 31	100% YES	0% NO
June 30	100% YES	0% NO
April 30	100% YES	0% NO
April 15	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Pam Bondi was confirmed as US Attorney General in February 2025 following Donald Trump's nomination. This market assesses whether she will leave the position—through resignation, removal, or any other departure—before 31 March 2026. The settlement window is notably tight, covering only her first fourteen months in office. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in her tenure stability during this period, though the probability formation suggests minimal trading activity or consensus conviction around her staying power.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for predicting Cabinet departures under Trump. His first administration saw significant turnover, with several attorneys general and cabinet members departing within their first year, though often amid public controversy or policy disagreements. Bondi's appointment followed Trump's previous attorney general pick, Kristi Noem, being withdrawn from consideration, suggesting Trump exercised considerable selectivity. Her background as Florida's former attorney general and Trump ally may provide stronger institutional footing than some predecessors faced.

Traders should monitor congressional oversight hearings, any significant policy reversals or conflicts with Trump administration priorities, and developments in ongoing investigations where the Justice Department plays a central role. Media reporting on internal White House dynamics and Trump's satisfaction with Bondi's performance will signal potential instability. The resolution hinges on official announcements from the Trump administration or credible reporting consensus; speculation alone will not trigger resolution. Given the compressed timeframe and current market pricing, any substantive friction between Bondi and Trump would likely surface quickly through reporting channels.

Wikipedia Context

Pam Bondi
Pamela Jo Bondi is an American attorney and politician who served as the 87th United States attorney general from 2025 to 2026. A member of the Republican Party, she served as the 37th attorney general of Florida from 2011 to 2019.
Pam Golding Properties
Pam Golding Properties is an international real estate company that sells and leases properties in numerous markets around the world. Founded in 1976 by realtor Pam Golding, the company is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
Licence to Kill
Licence to Kill is a 1989 spy film, the sixteenth in the James Bond series produced by Eon Productions, and the second and final film to star Timothy Dalton as the MI6 agent James Bond. In the film, Bond resigns from MI6 in order to take revenge against the drug lord Franz Sanchez who ordered an attack against Bond's friend and CIA agent Felix Leiter and the
Pam Golding Ladies International
The Pam Golding Ladies International was a golf tournament on the Ladies African Tour. It was played annually between 2003 and 2008, at various locations in South Africa.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$394K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for trump cabinet contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by...?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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