Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Swapped | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Apex | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Gladiator II | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Silent Twins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Black Phone 2 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Movie A | — | |
| Movie C | — | |
| Movie E | — | |
Netflix will publish its updated Top 10 Movies ranking for the United States on Tuesday, 12 May 2026, reflecting viewership data from the preceding week. The #2 position on this list represents the second-most-watched film by total views across the country during that measurement period. Settlement depends on Netflix's official update appearing on top10.netflix.com by 15:00 ET on the specified date, with a backstop resolution to "Other" if no update materialises by 23:59 ET on 15 May.
The 1% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders assess an extremely low likelihood that any single film will occupy the #2 slot. This pricing reflects the fragmented nature of Netflix's film viewership, where multiple titles typically compete for top positions week to week. Historical Netflix charts show the #2 position rotates frequently amongst newly released films, established franchises, and catalogue titles gaining momentum. The specificity required—predicting not merely a top performer but precisely the second-ranked film—creates substantial forecasting difficulty compared to betting on the #1 position.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release schedule for the week ending 11 May, as new major releases significantly influence ranking volatility. Existing chart-toppers and their trajectory matter considerably; a film holding #1 may push competitors into #2, whilst a new release could displace the current second-place title entirely. Industry tracking services and Netflix's own promotional announcements typically signal anticipated releases. The settlement window's tight timeframe—resolving within hours of the official update—leaves minimal room for interpretation disputes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for top netflix contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: