Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitmine sells any of its Ethereum by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Bitmine and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? | 24% YES | 76% NO |
The question centres on whether Bitmine, a cryptocurrency mining operation, will liquidate any portion of its Ethereum holdings during 2026. This represents a binary assessment of the firm's capital allocation strategy over a twelve-month window, with resolution dependent on verifiable on-chain transactions or official disclosures from the company itself.
The 24% implied probability reflects market participants' assessment that Bitmine is more likely to retain its Ethereum than to sell. Historical precedent suggests mining firms typically hold accumulated assets during bull markets and sell selectively during downturns or when facing operational pressures. Comparable cases include Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, which have alternated between accumulation and modest sales depending on Bitcoin price cycles and balance sheet requirements. The current probability suggests traders view Bitmine as positioned to hold through 2026, though roughly one-quarter of the market sees material risk of at least a partial exit.
Traders should monitor Bitmine's quarterly financial reports, any announcements regarding debt refinancing or capital expenditure plans, and broader Ethereum price movements that might trigger rebalancing decisions. Mining profitability directly correlates with electricity costs and hash rate competition, both of which could force liquidity decisions. On-chain monitoring tools provide real-time visibility into wallet movements, offering early signals ahead of formal announcements. The settlement window extends to 1 January 2027, allowing resolution clarity on year-end positions reported in Q4 2026 filings.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $763 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tom lee contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 24%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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