Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mei Yamaguchi and Haruka Kaji in the ITF Women Kurume, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 11:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mei Yamaguchi' if Mei Yamaguchi advances against Haruka Kaji. This market will resolve to 'Haruka Kaji' if Haruka Kaji advances against Mei Yamaguchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kurume: Mei Yamaguchi vs Haruka Kaji | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Mei Yamaguchi and Haruka Kaji are scheduled to meet in the ITF Women's Kurume tournament on 13 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture on the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete regularly. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability for Yamaguchi's advancement, suggesting marginal confidence in her chances relative to her opponent.
ITF Women's events at this tier typically feature players ranked between 300 and 800 globally, with outcomes heavily dependent on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Yamaguchi's slight edge in the market probability likely reflects either a superior recent win-loss record, favourable historical matchups, or better performance on hard courts—the standard surface at Kurume. Without recent published rankings or tournament results immediately available, traders should verify both players' ITF circuit performance over the preceding three months and any surface-specific data that might justify the current 56–44 split.
Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or injury announcements from either player in the week preceding the match. ITF scheduling can shift, and player availability fluctuates frequently at this level. The settlement window closes on 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day grace period for completion. Traders should monitor the ITF's official website and the Kurume tournament draw updates for confirmation of match timing and any changes to player participation that could alter the probability formation on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kurume: Mei Yamaguchi vs Haruka Kaji" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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