Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Vogt and Pia Lovric in the ITF Women Szentendre, originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Vogt' if Marie Vogt advances against Pia Lovric. This market will resolve to 'Pia Lovric' if Pia Lovric advances against Marie Vogt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Szentendre: Marie Vogt vs Pia Lovric | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Marie Vogt and Pia Lovric are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Szentendre tournament on 30 May 2026. The match is set for 4:00 AM ET, part of the lower-tier professional circuit where both players typically compete. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 100% implied probability for the match occurring and producing a winner, suggesting traders assess cancellation or delay risk as negligible at this stage.
ITF events at this level rarely face cancellation once scheduled within six weeks of the event date, though weather disruptions and player withdrawals remain material risks in early-season European clay tournaments. Historical precedent shows that matches scheduled this far in advance typically proceed as planned unless significant injury or logistical issues emerge. The 50-50 resolution clause for delays exceeding seven days without completion provides a safety valve, though such outcomes occur in fewer than 3% of ITF matches.
Traders should monitor the official ITF calendar and both players' social media for injury announcements or withdrawal notices, particularly in the week preceding the match. Vogt and Lovric's recent tournament schedules and ranking movements will indicate form and availability. The settlement window closes 6 June 2026 at 08:00 UTC, allowing a six-day window after the scheduled date for match completion. Any announcement of venue changes or scheduling conflicts from the Szentendre tournament organisers would be the primary catalyst shifting current market pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Szentendre: Marie Vogt vs Pia Lovric" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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