Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nuria Sarganella Verdu and Elena Molla Pons in the ITF Women Ontinyent, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuria Sarganella Verdu' if Nuria Sarganella Verdu advances against Elena Molla Pons. This market will resolve to 'Elena Molla Pons' if Elena Molla Pons advances against Nuria Sarganella Verdu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ontinyent: Nuria Sarganella Verdu vs Elena Molla Pons | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Nuria Sarganella Verdu and Elena Molla Pons are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's circuit event at Ontinyent on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Sarganella Verdu's advancement at 33%, implying Molla Pons holds a 67% probability of progressing. This pricing reflects the market's assessment of relative strength between two players competing on the lower-tier professional women's tennis circuit, where ITF tournaments serve as development and ranking-building venues.
Both players operate within Spain's domestic tennis ecosystem, competing regularly on ITF circuits where surface conditions, travel fatigue and match sharpness create substantial variance in outcomes. Historical ITF Women's matches show that seeding disparities and recent form carry significant weight; players ranked outside the top 500 often exhibit inconsistent performance across consecutive tournaments. The 67-33 split suggests the market has identified meaningful form or ranking differences favouring Molla Pons, though ITF events frequently produce upsets when lower-seeded players arrive with recent match practice.
Traders should monitor official ITF and WTA databases for any late withdrawals or schedule adjustments prior to the 3 June fixture. Confirmation of both players' participation in the Ontinyent draw typically arrives within 48 hours of the event. Surface conditions at the venue—clay courts are standard for Spanish ITF events—may favour particular playing styles. The settlement window extends to 10 June, providing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches, though ITF events rarely experience significant postponements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ontinyent: Nuria Sarganella Verdu vs Elena Molla Pons" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: