Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Max Pade and Maximilian Homberg in the ITF Men Kranjska Gora, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Pade' if Max Pade advances against Maximilian Homberg. This market will resolve to 'Maximilian Homberg' if Maximilian Homberg advances against Max Pade. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kranjska Gora: Max Pade vs Maximilian Homberg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Max Pade and Maximilian Homberg are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament at Kranjska Gora on 27 May 2026. The match forms part of the lower-tier professional tennis circuit, where both players are developing their rankings and match experience. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for Pade's advancement, suggesting either strong conviction in Homberg's superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline price.
ITF tournaments at this level typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 500, where form variance and surface-specific performance create meaningful uncertainty. Historical precedent from comparable ITF clay-court events shows that matches between similarly-ranked opponents rarely settle at extreme probability extremes; the 0% reading likely reflects thin liquidity rather than definitive analytical consensus. Homberg's recent results and head-to-head record against Pade, if available, would normally anchor trader positioning, but the absence of meaningful probability suggests limited information flow into this particular market.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF's official schedule updates, typically finalised 48 hours before competition. Surface conditions at Kranjska Gora—a clay-court venue—favour players with established clay-court form. Injury announcements or late substitutions could trigger significant repricing. The settlement window closes 3 June 2026, allowing seven days for completion; matches delayed beyond this point without resolution trigger a 50-50 split, creating a secondary consideration for traders assessing tail risks.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kranjska Gora: Max Pade vs Maximilian Homberg" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$76 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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