Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Manon Leonard and Maria Martinez Vaquero in the ITF Women Montemor-O-Novo, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 7:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manon Leonard' if Manon Leonard advances against Maria Martinez Vaquero. This market will resolve to 'Maria Martinez Vaquero' if Maria Martinez Vaquero advances against Manon Leonard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Manon Leonard vs Maria Martinez Vaquero | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Manon Leonard faces Maria Martinez Vaquero in a women's ITF tournament match scheduled for 4 June 2026 at Montemor-O-Novo, Portugal. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to Leonard's victory, with all liquidity concentrated on the opposing outcome. This extreme positioning reflects either strong conviction about Martinez Vaquero's superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a genuine market price.
ITF Women's circuit matches at this level typically feature players ranked between 300 and 800 globally, with outcomes heavily dependent on recent form and surface preference. Leonard and Martinez Vaquero's head-to-head record, if any exists, would normally anchor probability estimates; however, the complete absence of YES-side liquidity suggests traders view the matchup as heavily favourable to Martinez Vaquero based on available ranking data or recent tournament results. Comparable ITF matches with similar probability skews have occasionally resolved against consensus when the underdog player held specific advantages on clay courts or had recently defeated higher-ranked opponents.
Traders should monitor ITF official announcements regarding player withdrawals or schedule changes, particularly given the six-day window between the scheduled date and settlement deadline. Any late withdrawal by Martinez Vaquero would force resolution toward 50-50 parity. Recent player injury reports from the WTA circuit can also signal form changes affecting ITF participants. The settlement window's tight closure on 11 June leaves minimal buffer for delayed matches, making schedule adherence a material factor in how this market ultimately resolves.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Manon Leonard vs Maria Martinez Vaquero" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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