Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ergi Kirkin and Vuk Radjenovic in the ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ergi Kirkin' if Ergi Kirkin advances against Vuk Radjenovic. This market will resolve to 'Vuk Radjenovic' if Vuk Radjenovic advances against Ergi Kirkin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ergi Kirkin vs Vuk Radjenovic | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ergi Kirkin and Vuk Radjenovic are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's circuit event at Kursumlijska Banja on 27 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture where both players are competing for ranking points and prize money on the International Tennis Federation circuit. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for Kirkin's advancement, suggesting the market has priced in either strong conviction regarding Radjenovic's superiority or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful two-sided market.
ITF Men's matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, with upsets occurring regularly across the circuit. Historical data from comparable ITF tournaments shows that matches between players of similar ranking distributions often settle with probabilities between 40–60%, particularly when one player lacks recent tournament activity or carries injury concerns. The extreme pricing here warrants scrutiny: such polarised probabilities on lower-tier professional tennis usually emerge when one competitor has withdrawn, announced retirement, or faces documented fitness issues that have circulated amongst market participants.
Traders should monitor official ITF and ATP communications through late May for any withdrawal announcements or schedule changes. The settlement window closes 3 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for match completion. Weather disruptions at the Serbian venue, last-minute player withdrawals, or injury declarations in the days preceding the fixture represent the primary catalysts that could shift current pricing or trigger alternative resolution pathways.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ergi Kirkin vs Vuk Radjenovic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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