Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sora Fukuda and Saki Tange in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sora Fukuda' if Sora Fukuda advances against Saki Tange. This market will resolve to 'Saki Tange' if Saki Tange advances against Sora Fukuda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Saki Tange | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sora Fukuda faces Saki Tange in a men's ITF tournament match scheduled for 26 May 2026 at Karuizawa. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Fukuda's advancement, indicating traders are pricing this as a near-certain outcome. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny, as ITF-level matches frequently produce upsets and the pricing may not fully account for match-day volatility or incomplete pre-match information.
ITF men's tournaments at the Karuizawa venue historically feature competitive draws with modest ranking differentials between participants. Without recent head-to-head records or current ranking data readily available, the 100% probability appears aggressive relative to typical ITF match uncertainty. Comparable lower-tier professional matches usually trade with 65–85% implied probabilities for favoured players, suggesting the current market may be overweighting Fukuda's chances or reflecting information asymmetry among traders.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation closer to the scheduled date, any injury announcements, and withdrawal patterns typical in May ITF scheduling. The settlement window closes 3 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for delays or rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split. Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player social media for late withdrawals, which occur regularly at this level and would trigger alternative resolution conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Saki Tange" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$155 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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