Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Manon Favier and Lourdes Ayala in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 8:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manon Favier' if Manon Favier advances against Lourdes Ayala. This market will resolve to 'Lourdes Ayala' if Lourdes Ayala advances against Manon Favier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Manon Favier vs Lourdes Ayala | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Manon Favier faces Lourdes Ayala in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir, scheduled for 27 May 2026. The match is a qualifying or main-draw encounter on the ITF circuit, where both players compete regularly. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in match completion or minimal liquidity depth at present. This extreme probability typically emerges when one outcome dominates early trading or when the market has received limited participation.
ITF Women's matches at established venues like Monastir rarely face cancellation once scheduled, though weather disruptions remain a structural risk in May across North Africa. Historical precedent from ITF tournaments shows that scheduling delays beyond the seven-day threshold are uncommon unless severe circumstances intervene. Favier, a French player competing on the ITF circuit, and Ayala, competing from her respective ranking, represent mid-tier professional competition where match completion rates remain high. The settlement window extends to 3 June 2026, providing a five-day buffer beyond the scheduled date.
Traders should monitor official ITF and tournament communications for any fixture changes, player withdrawals, or weather alerts as the event date approaches. The Monastir venue's historical reliability and the professional status of both competitors suggest low abandonment risk. Any announcement of player injury, withdrawal, or venue issues would likely shift the current extreme probability significantly. Early-stage trading at 100% may reflect limited order-book depth rather than genuine certainty; material movement could occur as the match date nears and additional traders enter the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Manon Favier vs Lourdes Ayala" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$386 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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