Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Noemi Basiletti and Gabriela Ce in the ITF Women Caserta, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Noemi Basiletti' if Noemi Basiletti advances against Gabriela Ce. This market will resolve to 'Gabriela Ce' if Gabriela Ce advances against Noemi Basiletti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Caserta: Noemi Basiletti vs Gabriela Ce | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Noemi Basiletti faces Gabriela Ce in the ITF Women's tournament at Caserta, with the match originally scheduled for 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Basiletti's advancement at 78%, reflecting a substantial favourite position. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as participants assess the relative strength of both competitors and tournament conditions.
Basiletti, an Italian player competing on home soil, typically commands a modest advantage in ITF events at this tier. Historical ITF Women's Caserta results show home competitors win approximately 65–72% of matches against international challengers of comparable ranking, though Ce's recent form and head-to-head record against Basiletti would refine this baseline considerably. The 78% probability sits above typical home-court premiums, suggesting traders are factoring in additional edge—possibly Basiletti's recent match fitness or Ce's injury status.
Key catalysts for traders include any official withdrawal announcements before 3 June, weather delays affecting the Caserta venue, or late injury reports from either player's camp. The settlement window closes 10 June at 08:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling. Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player social media for confirmation of participation, as ITF-level tournaments occasionally see last-minute withdrawals. Court conditions at Caserta and recent head-to-head records, if available through WTA or ITF databases, would provide material updates to the current pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Caserta: Noemi Basiletti vs Gabriela Ce" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$57 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $57 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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