Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Henri Squire and Pedro Martinez in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Henri Squire' if Henri Squire advances against Pedro Martinez. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Martinez' if Pedro Martinez advances against Henri Squire. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 Winner | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Match O/U 23.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Match O/U 21.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 74% YES | 27% NO |
Henri Squire and Pedro Martinez are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match at Heilbronn on 3 June 2026, with the market settlement window closing on 10 June. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for Squire's advancement, suggesting the market views Martinez as the favoured outcome at present odds.
Squire and Martinez occupy different positions within professional tennis rankings and recent form trajectories. Historical ATP and challenger-level matchups between players of comparable ranking typically show that favouritism correlates with recent tournament results, head-to-head records, and surface-specific performance data. The 40% probability for Squire indicates the market is pricing in either a Martinez ranking advantage or recent form edge; comparable clay-court specialists at Heilbronn have historically seen tighter markets when ranking gaps narrow below 50 positions. Traders should examine their respective performances on clay surfaces and any recent injury reports, as these factors have historically shifted similar markets by 10–15 percentage points.
Key catalysts include official tournament draws and seeding announcements, typically released 7–10 days before competition begins, which may trigger repricing if either player receives an unexpected seeding or withdrawal occurs. Weather delays or scheduling changes at Heilbronn could extend the match beyond the settlement window's 7-day buffer, triggering the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent ATP communications regarding the Heilbronn event schedule should be monitored through official ATP Tour channels and tournament websites for any fixture adjustments or player withdrawals that might materialise before 3 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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