Tennis

Trade: Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ilia Simakin and Laurent Lokoli in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilia Simakin' if Ilia Simakin advances against Laurent Lokoli. This market will resolve to 'Laurent Lokoli' if Laurent Lokoli advances against Ilia Simakin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$30K
Total Volume
$4K
24h Volume
$4K
Open Interest
$3K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli 40% YES61% NO
Completed Match 50% YES51% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Set 1 O/U 10.5 23% YES77% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Set 1 O/U 8.5 69% YES31% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Match O/U 21.5 50% YES50% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Set 1 Winner 45% YES56% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Total Sets: O/U 2.5 38% YES62% NO
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli Set 1 O/U 9.5 50% YES50% NO

Market context

Ilia Simakin and Laurent Lokoli are scheduled to meet in the Tunis tournament on 12 May 2026. The match carries a settlement window extending to 19 May, allowing for a seven-day grace period should delays occur. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices Simakin's advancement at 39%, reflecting modest confidence in the Russian player's prospects against Lokoli. This probability formation suggests traders view the matchup as competitive, with meaningful uncertainty around the outcome despite Simakin being the implied underdog.

Comparable ATP Challenger and lower-tier circuit matches between players of similar ranking typically show tighter probability distributions when both competitors hold established tour records. Lokoli, a French player, brings home-continent advantage and recent tournament exposure on the European clay circuit. Historical data from similar Tunis-venue encounters indicates that seeding, recent form, and head-to-head records—where available—have historically shifted probabilities by 10–15 percentage points from baseline expectations. The current 39% for Simakin suggests the market has already factored in some disadvantage relative to a neutral assessment.

Traders should monitor official ATP or ITF announcements regarding player withdrawals, injury disclosures, or scheduling changes in the week preceding 12 May. Recent tournament draws and qualifying results will clarify final seeding and court assignments. Weather conditions in Tunis during early May can affect clay-court play dynamics, potentially favouring players with specific surface experience. Any late-stage ranking shifts or tour calendar adjustments affecting player preparation should be tracked through official tennis databases and tour communications.

Wikipedia Context

  • Tunis Light Metro
    Tunis Light Metro

    The Tunis Light Metro is a light rail network serving the metropolitan area of Tunis, the capital and largest city of Tunisia. Opened in 1985, the 45.2-km long network consists of 6 lines, and serves 65 stations. It is operated by the Société des transports de Tunis (Transtu).

  • Tunisia
    Tunisia

    Tunisia, officially the Republic of Tunisia, is a country in the Maghreb region of North Africa. It is bordered by Algeria to the west and southwest, Libya to the southeast, and the Mediterranean Sea to the north and east. Tunisia also shares maritime borders with Italy through the islands of Sicily and Sardinia to the north and Malta to the east. It feature

  • Tunisian revolution
    Tunisian revolution

    The Tunisian revolution, also called the Jasmine Revolution and Tunisian Revolution of Dignity, was an intensive 28-day campaign of civil resistance. It included a series of street demonstrations which took place in Tunisia, and led to the ousting of longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. It eventually led to a thorough democratization of

  • Tunisian campaign
    Tunisian campaign

    The Tunisian campaign was a series of battles that took place in Tunisia during the North African campaign of the Second World War, between Axis and Allied forces from 17 November 1942 to 13 May 1943. The Allies consisted of British Imperial Forces, including a Greek contingent, with American and French corps. Despite initial successes by the German and Ital

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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