Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Maximo Zeitune in the Cordoba, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Maximo Zeitune. This market will resolve to 'Maximo Zeitune' if Maximo Zeitune advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Set 1 Winner | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Match O/U 21.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Match O/U 22.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Juan Manuel La Serna faces Maximo Zeitune in a first-round match at the Córdoba Open, an ATP 250 event scheduled for 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices La Serna's advancement at 62%, reflecting moderate confidence in the Argentine player's progression past his opponent. The settlement window closes on 18 May, allowing seven days for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that period triggers a 50-50 resolution.
La Serna, a lower-ranked Argentine, typically competes on the South American clay circuit where home-court advantage carries measurable weight. Historical data from Córdoba tournaments shows that local players holding seeding positions advance at elevated rates, though La Serna's exact ranking relative to Zeitune will determine whether the 62% probability reflects genuine form differential or market overweighting of venue factors. Comparable first-round matchups at ATP 250 events between players outside the top 100 generally see tighter probability distributions unless one player holds significant recent momentum.
Traders should monitor official ATP scheduling confirmations and any injury reports in the week preceding the match, as the Córdoba Open occasionally experiences weather-related delays on clay courts during May. Recent tournament draws and player entry lists will clarify seeding positions and head-to-head records. Withdrawal announcements from either player would trigger the tie-break resolution clause, so tracking official tournament communications through the ATP website remains essential for managing position risk through the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Maximo Zeitune" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$847 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $847 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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