Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Alexandre Muller in the Bordeaux, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Alexandre Muller. This market will resolve to 'Alexandre Muller' if Alexandre Muller advances against Rei Sakamoto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bordeaux: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Rei Sakamoto and Alexandre Muller are scheduled to meet in the Bordeaux tournament on 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Sakamoto's advancement at 47%, reflecting genuine uncertainty between two players with contrasting profiles. Muller, a French player competing on home soil, carries the traditional advantage of local support and familiarity with European clay conditions. Sakamoto, the Japanese competitor, brings a different tactical approach to the matchup.
Historical precedent suggests that clay-court tournaments in Western Europe favour players with established European tour experience. Muller's ranking trajectory and recent performances on the ATP circuit will be the primary reference point for assessing whether home advantage translates to measurable edge. Sakamoto's record against similarly ranked opponents in spring tournaments provides the counterweight—his consistency on slower surfaces has improved markedly over the past two seasons, narrowing what would historically have been a wider gap.
Key variables for traders centre on injury reports and tournament scheduling in the weeks preceding 13 May. Any withdrawal announcements or fitness concerns from either player would trigger immediate repricing on the order book. The settlement window extends to 20 May, allowing seven days for match completion; delays beyond that trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent ATP communications regarding the Bordeaux event should be monitored for draw confirmations and any surface or scheduling adjustments that might favour one player's preparation timeline over the other.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bordeaux: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$55 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $55 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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