Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Tomas Machac and Daniil Medvedev are scheduled to meet in the second round of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia on 8 May 2026. The match carries a 50-50 implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting genuine uncertainty between a rising Czech talent and a former world number one. Medvedev has won three Masters 1000 titles and reached multiple Grand Slam finals, whilst Machac has emerged as a top-50 player with improving results on clay courts. The even split suggests traders view this as a genuine toss-up rather than a clear favourite scenario.
Medvedev's recent form on clay remains the critical historical reference point. He reached the 2023 Rome final but has shown inconsistency on the surface compared to hard courts, where he maintains higher win rates. Machac's trajectory on clay has improved markedly; he reached the 2024 French Open second round and has posted solid results at lower-tier clay events. The current 50-50 pricing reflects this convergence rather than any decisive historical edge either player holds on this surface.
Traders should monitor first-round results for both players, as early-round exits or injury concerns would shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at the Foro Italico in early May typically favour baseline rallies, which suits Medvedev's defensive game but also allows Machac's aggressive approach to flourish. The settlement window extends to 15 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion, reducing the likelihood of a 50-50 tie resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$214K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $204K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: