Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Kovacevic' if Aleksandar Kovacevic advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Aleksandar Kovacevic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Aleksandar Kovacevic faces Daniel Merida Aguilar in a Valencia tournament match scheduled for 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Kovacevic's advancement at 27 per cent, implying Merida Aguilar is favoured at 73 per cent. This pricing reflects the market's assessment of relative form, ranking position, and head-to-head record as of the settlement window closing on 20 May.
Kovacevic, a US-based player, has competed primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit with occasional main-draw appearances. Merida Aguilar, competing from Spain, holds home advantage in Valencia and typically performs well on European clay and hard courts. Historical matchups between players of similar ranking tiers show that home-court advantage in European tournaments typically shifts implied probability by 10–15 percentage points in favour of the local competitor. The current 73 per cent pricing for Merida Aguilar aligns with this pattern, though it depends on both players' recent tournament results and fitness status entering May.
Traders should monitor ATP official announcements regarding either player's withdrawal or injury declarations, which would trigger the 50–50 resolution clause. The Valencia tournament draw confirmation and any late schedule adjustments will clarify court surface conditions and match timing. Recent form in April–May warm-up events will provide concrete data on current fitness levels. The settlement window extends only seven days beyond the scheduled date, so any significant delay risks the 50–50 outcome regardless of eventual result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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