Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between James Duckworth and Rafael Jodar in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against James Duckworth. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 62%, making this a coinflip market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $94K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Match O/U 36.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Match O/U 38.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Match O/U 40.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Set 1 Winner | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
James Duckworth, the Australian right-hander ranked outside the top 100, faces Rafael Jodar, a Spanish player competing primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, in the opening rounds of Roland Garros in late May 2026. The match is scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 27 May, placing it among the earliest court assignments at the tournament. Duckworth has competed regularly on the ATP main tour since 2014 and holds a career-high ranking near 50; Jodar's presence in the main draw would represent a significant achievement given his typical circuit status. The 62% implied probability on Polymarket's order book currently favours Duckworth, reflecting the gap in tour experience and ranking between the two competitors.
Historical matchups between established ATP players and Challenger-level competitors at Grand Slams show that ranking disparity typically translates to win probability, though early-round upsets remain common. Duckworth's record in first-round encounters at major tournaments has been mixed, with several losses to unseeded or lower-ranked opponents over the past three seasons. The current market pricing suggests traders view Duckworth as a clear favourite but not prohibitively so—a reasonable assessment given the unpredictability of early-round play and the potential for surface conditions or scheduling fatigue to influence outcomes.
Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any late withdrawals or injury announcements in the week preceding the match. Early-morning court assignments occasionally face weather delays or rescheduling, which could affect player preparation and fatigue levels. Recent form data from both players' spring clay-court results will provide the most relevant conditioning indicators ahead of the tournament.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 3 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($94K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$84K in lifetime turnover and $94K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $73K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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