Trade: Will Zoom Q1 online average monthly churn rate be at least 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zoom's online average monthly churn rate for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is at least the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $737
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| 2.7% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 2.8% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 2.9% | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| 3.0% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 3.1% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Market context
Zoom's customer retention metrics will come under scrutiny when the company reports Q1 fiscal 2027 results, expected in late May 2026. The market is pricing a 40% probability that the online average monthly churn rate will exceed a specified threshold, suggesting traders perceive meaningful downside risk to retention. This metric captures the proportion of Zoom's subscriber base that discontinues service each month, a critical indicator of product-market fit and competitive positioning in videoconferencing.
Zoom's churn dynamics have shifted materially since its pandemic-era peak. The company has faced intensifying competition from Microsoft Teams, Google Meet, and enterprise-focused alternatives whilst navigating a normalisation in demand from elevated 2020–2021 levels. Historical churn rates and guidance revisions provide the primary benchmarks for assessing whether current probability reflects realistic expectations. Traders should examine Zoom's prior quarterly disclosures and management commentary on retention trends, particularly any signals regarding customer acquisition costs or net revenue retention figures that correlate with churn behaviour.
The settlement window closes 21 May 2026, giving traders approximately five months to monitor Zoom's business trajectory. Key catalysts include quarterly earnings announcements, product releases, and competitive developments in the unified communications space. The Polymarket order book currently reflects the 40% probability through active trading; material shifts in Zoom's guidance, customer wins or losses, or broader SaaS sector dynamics could move pricing substantially before fiscal Q1 results are finalised.
Wikipedia Context
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Zoom (software)Zoom Workplace is a proprietary videotelephony software program developed by Zoom Communications. The free plan allows up to 100 concurrent participants, with a 40-minute time restriction. Users have the option to upgrade by subscribing to a paid plan, the highest of which supports up to 1,000 concurrent participants for meetings lasting up to 30 hours.
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Zoom CommunicationsZoom Communications, Inc. is an American communications technology company headquartered in San Jose, California, United States. It is primarily known for the videoconferencing application Zoom.
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Zoom (2006 film)Zoom is a 2006 American superhero comedy film based on the children's book Amazing Adventures from Zoom's Academy by Jason Lethcoe. The film was directed by Peter Hewitt and written by Adam Rifkin and David Berenbaum, with writing assistance from Tim Allen, who stars alongside Courteney Cox, Chevy Chase, Spencer Breslin, and Rip Torn. It features a former su
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ZoombombingZoombombing or Zoom raiding is the unwanted, disruptive intrusion, generally by Internet trolls, into a video-conference call. In a typical Zoombombing incident, a teleconferencing session is hijacked by the insertion of material that is lewd, obscene, or offensive in nature, typically resulting in the shutdown of the session or the removal of the troll. The
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Zoom Q1 online average monthly churn rate be at least 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $737 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Zoom Q1 online average monthly churn rate be at least 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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