Trade: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $18K
- Total Volume
- $6K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| 20-39 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| <20 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| 60-79 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 40-59 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 80+ | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Market context
The Strait of Hormuz will see container ships, tankers, dry bulk carriers, and general cargo vessels transit during the week of 11–17 May 2026. IMF Portwatch tracks these transit calls daily, and the market settles on their published count for that seven-day window. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 30% probability that transits will exceed a specific threshold—suggesting traders expect either moderate traffic or heightened uncertainty around the baseline forecast.
Historical transit volumes through Hormuz average roughly 20–25 ships per day under normal conditions, translating to 140–175 transits weekly. Disruptions—whether from geopolitical tensions, sanctions enforcement, or seasonal weather—have compressed flows to 10–15 daily transits during acute periods. The 30% probability reflects traders pricing in either a significant supply shock or confidence that baseline conditions will hold. Recent years show volatility clustering around Iranian sanctions announcements and US naval posture shifts, though 2025–2026 data remain limited for direct comparison.
Traders should monitor announcements from the US State Department regarding Iran policy, any escalation in regional tensions, and scheduled maintenance windows at major Gulf refineries that might suppress inbound tanker demand. Seasonal factors matter: May typically sees stable weather and consistent refinery throughput. IMF Portwatch publishes data with a lag; settlement depends on final reporting within 14 days of 17 May. Any unexpected sanctions tightening or military incidents in the preceding weeks would be the primary catalyst shifting implied probability materially from current levels.
Wikipedia Context
-
Mary Shipp
Mary Shipp was an American actress who performed primarily on radio and television. She portrayed "everything from giddy teenagers to siren-voiced vixens and stuffy matrons".
-
Mary Shipman Howard
Mary Shipman Howard (1911–1976) was one of the earliest female recording engineers and recording studio owners. She was owner of Mary Howard Recordings studio and MHR label in New York City. She worked with Glenn Miller, Arturo Toscanini, and Charles Ives. After leaving the studio business, she remarried as Mary Howard Pickhardt and was a well-known breeder
-
Jeff ManshipJeffrey Michael Manship is an American former professional baseball pitcher. He played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, and Cleveland Indians, and in the KBO League for the NC Dinos.
-
Paul ManshipPaul Howard Manship was an American sculptor. He consistently created mythological pieces in a classical style, and was a major force in the Art Deco movement. He is well known for his large public commissions, including the iconic Prometheus in Rockefeller Center and the Celestial Sphere Woodrow Wilson Memorial in Geneva, Switzerland. He is also credited fo
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tanker contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: