Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Ozzy Diaz" if Ozzy Diaz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ateba Gautier at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Ateba Gautier" if Ateba Gautier is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Diaz to win by KO/TKO? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gautier to win by KO/TKO? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
UFC 328 takes place on 9 May 2026 at Madison Square Garden in New York, headlined by Khamzat Chimaev versus Sean Strickland. The preliminary card features a middleweight bout between Ozzy Diaz and Ateba Gautier, scheduled before the main card events. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity or positioning on this particular preliminary fight, which is typical for lower-profile bouts on major cards where liquidity concentrates on headline matchups.
Preliminary fights at UFC events historically attract significantly less market interest than main card contests, resulting in sparse order books and wide bid-ask spreads. The 0% reading likely indicates no active sellers willing to support Diaz at any price rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. Comparable preliminary bouts at major events typically see resolution without incident, though fighter withdrawals, injuries, or weight-cutting complications occasionally force cancellations or rescheduling within the event window.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and weigh-in results in the week preceding 9 May. Any changes to the card composition or fighter status would be communicated through UFC's official channels and major MMA news outlets. The settlement window extends to 23 May, providing a buffer for potential postponements or administrative delays. Current market conditions suggest limited information asymmetry has been priced in, leaving the outcome substantially dependent on fight-day execution and judging decisions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$412K in lifetime turnover and $2.4M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $391K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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