Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Jhonata Diniz" if Jhonata Diniz is officially declared the winner of the fight against José Luiz at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "José Luiz" if José Luiz is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the YES side at 57%, making this a coinflip market with 19 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $1K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jhonata Diniz vs. José Luiz | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Diniz to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Luiz to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Jhonata Diniz faces José Luiz in a heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on 20 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 57% implied probability for Diniz victory, formed across Polymarket's order book as traders price the matchup ahead of the event. Settlement occurs immediately following official UFC declaration of the result, with a resolution window closing on 21 June 2026.
Diniz enters as the favoured fighter at current odds, though both competitors operate at the heavyweight division's lower tier of recognition. Historical preliminary-bout markets at this weight class show considerable variance in predictability; upsets occur at roughly 40–45% frequency when the favourite carries implied probability between 55–65%, suggesting the current pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dominance. Comparable UFC Fight Night preliminary matchups have settled across the full spectrum of outcomes, with judging decisions and submission finishes both common enough to warrant caution in directional positioning.
Traders should monitor official UFC weigh-in results on 19 June, which may reveal last-minute fighter condition or withdrawal announcements. Recent injury reports or coaching changes affecting either competitor could shift the order book materially in the final 48 hours before fight time. The preliminary-bout slot carries elevated cancellation risk relative to main-card fights; any postponement beyond 4 July triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 21 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.ufc.com/events), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "UFC Fight Night: Jhonata Diniz vs. José Luiz (Heavyweight, Prelims)", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Jhonata Diniz vs. José Luiz (Heavyweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$180 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $180 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "UFC Fight Night: Jhonata Diniz vs. José Luiz (Heavyweight, Prelims)", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: