Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Galatasaray SK and Antalyaspor.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Galatasaray SK | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Antalyaspor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Galatasaray will travel to face Antalyaspor in a Süper Lig fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026, with settlement occurring at 17:00 UTC that day. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing this as a near-certain occurrence. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when an event has minimal execution risk—in this case, a scheduled league match between two established Turkish clubs with no reported fixture cancellations or postponements.
Historical context suggests Galatasaray's dominance in Turkish football provides baseline expectations. The Istanbul club has won the Süper Lig multiple times and typically competes at the league's upper tier, whilst Antalyaspor has experienced more volatility in recent seasons. When examining comparable fixtures in prediction markets, matches between top-tier and mid-tier sides in established leagues rarely fail to occur, though injury crises, administrative issues, or weather events have occasionally forced postponements. The 100% reading here reflects confidence in fixture completion rather than a forecast of match outcome.
Traders should monitor official Süper Lig announcements regarding fixture scheduling, particularly any statements from the Turkish Football Federation (TFF) regarding potential rescheduling. Injury updates for key players, whilst affecting match dynamics, would not alter settlement conditions. Weather forecasts for the Antalya region in early May are typically stable, reducing weather-related postponement risk. Any administrative disputes between clubs or league governance changes remain the primary wild-card catalysts that could theoretically prevent the match occurring as scheduled.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$407K in lifetime turnover and $280K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $402K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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