Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Primeira Liga game between CD Tondela and Moreirense FC, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the CD Tondela vs. Moreirense FC match originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
CD Tondela and Moreirense FC will contest a Primeira Liga fixture on 11 May 2026 at 3:15 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any outcome not explicitly listed settling to "Any Other Score." Current pricing on Polymarket's order book reflects a 7% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible results.
Exact-score markets in football typically price individual outcomes at low probabilities because the combinatorial space of possible results is large. In Primeira Liga matches, the modal outcomes cluster around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results, each historically occurring in roughly 10–15% of fixtures. A 7% probability for a particular scoreline sits within the range of moderately likely outcomes rather than tail events, indicating the market has identified a plausible but not favoured result. The depth of Polymarket's order book will determine whether traders can execute meaningful positions at the current spread.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports as the fixture approaches, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Tondela and Moreirense's recent form, head-to-head records, and any fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season will influence expected goal distribution. Confirmation of the scheduled kick-off time and venue should be verified closer to the settlement window, as fixture changes occasionally occur in Portuguese football scheduling.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Tondela vs. Moreirense FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11 in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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