Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between FC Arouca and CD Tondela.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC Arouca | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Draw (FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| CD Tondela | 44% YES | 56% NO |
FC Arouca will travel to face CD Tondela in a Primeira Liga fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (an Arouca victory) at 31%, reflecting modest backing for the away side despite Tondela's home advantage. Settlement occurs immediately after the final whistle.
Both clubs occupy the lower half of Portugal's top division, though their recent trajectories differ. Arouca has shown greater consistency in recent seasons, whilst Tondela has experienced relegation battles and squad instability. Historical head-to-head records between these sides favour neither decisively, but Arouca's away record and Tondela's home form will be material factors. The 31% probability suggests traders view this as a Tondela-favoured fixture, with draw odds likely commanding substantial implied probability on the order book.
Key variables to monitor include team news in the final weeks before the fixture—injuries to key players, managerial changes, or late-season form shifts can rapidly alter match dynamics. Fixture congestion late in the season may affect squad rotation decisions. Tondela's recent home record and Arouca's away performance in April and early May will provide the most relevant data points. Any significant personnel changes announced in the fortnight before 16 May could shift the probability materially, particularly if either side experiences unexpected departures or returns from injury.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Arouca vs. CD Tondela" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$291 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $291 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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