Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New England Revolution | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (New England Revolution vs. Philadelphia Union) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Philadelphia Union | 0% YES | 100% NO |
New England Revolution will face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular-season fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The match forms part of the 2026 MLS season calendar and will determine three points in the Eastern Conference standings. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this event as a certainty—a rare occurrence in sports markets that typically reflects either technical settlement mechanics or an absence of meaningful liquidity at alternative price levels.
Historical MLS matchups between these clubs show competitive encounters with outcomes distributed across wins, losses and draws. Since 2015, the Revolution and Union have met regularly in league play, with neither side establishing decisive dominance. The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny against typical pre-match conditions: even heavily favoured teams in football rarely trade at such extremes unless the market is thin or settlement terms create unusual incentives. Comparable fixtures in established prediction markets generally maintain 5–15% implied probability for the underdog, even when one side enters as clear favourite.
Traders should monitor squad availability and injury reports as the match date approaches, particularly for key attacking or defensive personnel. Recent MLS scheduling patterns and weather conditions in the Northeast corridor may affect team preparation. Polymarket's order book depth will determine whether the current extreme probability reflects genuine consensus or simply sparse trading activity; meaningful counter-offers at lower prices would indicate genuine disagreement about the fixture outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New England Revolution vs. Philadelphia Union" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$91K in lifetime turnover and $532K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $86K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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