Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 23 at 8:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
Nashville SC will face New York City FC in Major League Soccer on 23 May at 8:30 PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle on 24 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 27% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders view this event as unlikely relative to alternative resolutions. This probability emerges from live trading activity as participants price their expectations against available liquidity.
Historical MLS matchups between these sides provide context for interpreting the current market level. Nashville SC has developed into a competitive mid-table side since joining MLS in 2020, whilst NYCFC remains a perennial playoff contender with greater institutional resources. Head-to-head records and recent form typically anchor baseline expectations in MLS markets, though seasonal momentum and injury status shift probabilities considerably. The 27% mark suggests traders are pricing in NYCFC's structural advantages and recent performance trajectory relative to Nashville's current standing.
Traders monitoring this market should track team news through the week preceding kickoff, particularly injury confirmations for key players that could alter tactical approach or squad depth. Weather conditions at Nashville's venue and any late lineup adjustments announced pre-match will influence final probability movements. MLS fixture congestion and travel schedules occasionally affect performance; checking both sides' fixture lists in the days prior may reveal fatigue factors. Live odds typically tighten significantly in the hours immediately before kickoff as information asymmetries narrow and casual traders enter the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Nashville SC vs. New York City FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: