Trade: CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLS game between CF Montréal and Chicago Fire FC, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
CF Montréal will face Chicago Fire FC in an MLS regular season match on 16 May 2026 at 4:30 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The current order book on Polymarket implies a 6% probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the relatively low likelihood of any single exact scoreline occurring in a football match where dozens of possible results exist.
Exact score markets in football typically show heavily fragmented probability distributions. The most common outcomes—1–0, 1–1, 2–1, 2–0—collectively account for roughly 40–50% of all matches, whilst any individual scoreline rarely exceeds 8–10% implied probability. The 6% reading here suggests traders are pricing this particular outcome near the median for a plausible result, neither favoured nor dismissed. Historical MLS data shows CF Montréal and Chicago Fire FC have produced varied scorelines in recent seasons, with neither side demonstrating extreme offensive or defensive consistency that would skew probabilities toward blowouts.
Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly injury updates and lineup confirmations released in the days before kickoff. Both clubs' form trajectories in the weeks preceding the match will influence expected goal output. Weather conditions at the venue and any fixture congestion affecting either side's preparation merit attention. Recent MLS scheduling patterns and mid-season fatigue levels could shift expected scoring patterns, though such factors typically move probabilities incrementally rather than dramatically for any single exact score.
Wikipedia Context
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CF MontréalCF Montréal is a Canadian professional soccer club based in Montreal. The club competes in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Eastern Conference. Founded in 1992 as the Montreal Impact, they began playing in the MLS in 2012 as the league's nineteenth franchise and third Canadian club.
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CF Montréal–Vancouver Whitecaps FC rivalryThe CF Montréal–Vancouver Whitecaps FC rivalry is a Canadian soccer club rivalry between CF Montréal and the Vancouver Whitecaps FC. Both teams play in Major League Soccer (MLS) since joining as expansion teams in the early 2010s, although their rivalry stems from seventeen years of competition in various American second division soccer leagues in the 1990s
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CF Montréal AcademyCF Montréal Academy is a soccer academy based in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. They are the academy of Major League Soccer club CF Montréal. Founded in 2010, they operated a team in the Canadian Soccer League from 2010 to 2012. Their U-23 team played in the USL Premier Development League in 2014.
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CF Montréal U23
CF Montréal U23, formerly Montreal Impact U23, is a Canadian soccer team based in Montreal, Quebec, Canada that played in Ligue1 Québec. They were the reserve club of Major League Soccer club CF Montréal and represented the highest team of the CF Montréal Academy. Previously known as Montreal Impact U23, in 2014, they played in the Premier Development League
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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