Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres, scheduled for May 8 at 9:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | — | |
| O/U 6.5 | — | |
| O/U 5.5 | — | |
| O/U 4.5 | — | |
| O/U 3.5 | — | |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
The St. Louis Cardinals face the San Diego Padres in an MLB regular-season matchup scheduled for 8 May at 9:45 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for a Cardinals victory, indicating substantial confidence in St. Louis amongst active traders. This probability has formed through cumulative trading activity on the platform's order book, where the YES side (Cardinals win) commands a significant premium relative to the NO side.
The Cardinals and Padres occupy different competitive positions heading into May. St. Louis has historically maintained stronger regular-season performance in recent years, whilst San Diego has experienced roster volatility and inconsistent results. When examining comparable matchups between these franchises, the Cardinals have held a marginal edge in head-to-head records over the past three seasons. However, a 98% probability for either team in a single game represents an extreme confidence level; such probabilities typically emerge only when one side faces documented injuries, suspension, or substantial roster disadvantages that fundamentally alter expected outcomes.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and any late roster announcements before game time. Injury reports released in the 24 hours preceding the match could materially shift the probability, particularly if either team's primary starter is unavailable. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue and any bullpen availability concerns warrant attention. The settlement window extends to 16 May at 01:45 UTC, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or other factors delay the fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$222K in lifetime turnover and $893K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $217K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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