Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 10 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Weibo Gaming face Ninjas in Pyjamas in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend competition, scheduled for 10 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 54% probability of a Weibo Gaming victory, reflecting modest confidence in the Chinese organisation over the international challenger. Settlement occurs at 15:00 UTC on 10 May, with the market resolving to a 50-50 split only if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie—an unlikely outcome in a BO3 format.
Historical matchups between LPL representatives and international teams in group-stage formats show Chinese organisations typically hold structural advantages in domestic competition infrastructure and scrim access, though Ninjas in Pyjamas have demonstrated competitive capability in cross-regional tournaments. The 54% probability suggests the market views this as a genuine contest rather than a heavily favoured outcome, consistent with how international teams have performed against mid-tier LPL squads in recent seasons.
Traders should monitor official LPL scheduling confirmations and any roster changes announced before 10 May, as both organisations occasionally adjust line-ups for group-stage matches. Recent patch notes and meta shifts in the weeks preceding the match will influence champion pools and preparation depth. Internet connectivity issues or technical delays affecting either team's facilities represent the primary tail risks that could trigger the 50-50 resolution condition, though such occurrences remain uncommon in established LPL infrastructure.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.6M in lifetime turnover and $1.9M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.6M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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