Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lorient | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Metz | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Le Havre | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Angers | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Paris FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Brest | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Three clubs will be relegated from Ligue 1 at the conclusion of the 2025–26 season, dropping to Ligue 2. The bottom three finishers in the 20-team league face automatic demotion. Currently, the order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for this market, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme confidence that a specific club will avoid relegation or minimal liquidity at present valuations. Settlement depends on official Ligue 1 confirmation by 30 May 2026, with a backstop clause nullifying all positions if the season does not complete by 1 October 2026.
Historically, Ligue 1 relegation markets have reflected the league's competitive volatility. Clubs with strong financial backing and established infrastructure—such as those in the top six—rarely face demotion, whilst mid-table and lower-tier sides experience genuine relegation risk. The 2024–25 season provides immediate context: teams currently occupying positions 18–20 will be primary candidates, though form can shift substantially over a full campaign. Promoted clubs from Ligue 2 often struggle in their first season, creating predictable relegation candidates.
Traders should monitor managerial changes, transfer activity during winter and summer windows, and injury updates to key players at vulnerable clubs. Fixture congestion and European competition demands on wealthier sides may indirectly affect relegation outcomes. Official Ligue 1 announcements regarding rule changes or format modifications, though unlikely, would constitute material information. The market's current 0% reading suggests either a specific club is the subject with near-certain safety, or initial order book depth remains thin ahead of the season's midpoint.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ligue 1: Which Clubs Get Relegated?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $253 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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