Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga game between Sevilla FC and Real Sociedad de Fútbol, scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol match originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 4-1 | — | |
| Exact Score: 4-2 | — | |
| Exact Score: 4-0 | — | |
| Exact Score: 5-1 | — | |
| Exact Score: 5-2 | — | |
Sevilla FC and Real Sociedad de Fútbol will meet on 4 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture, with settlement determined by the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The market's 100% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing outcomes across a discrete set of scorelines; any result outside the explicitly listed options resolves to "Any Other Score." This concentration of probability suggests either thin liquidity in early trading or strong consensus around particular outcomes, a pattern common in sports markets where the long tail of possible scores distributes remaining probability across numerous low-probability events.
Historical La Liga matches between these sides provide context for expected scoring patterns. Sevilla and Real Sociedad typically produce moderate-scoring encounters, with recent seasons showing both clubs averaging between 1.2 and 1.8 goals per match in head-to-head play. The most frequently observed scorelines in comparable fixtures fall within the 1–1, 1–0, and 2–1 range, though the exact distribution depends heavily on home-field advantage and current form.
Traders should monitor team news through late April, particularly injury updates and squad rotation decisions as clubs approach the final weeks of the season. Real Sociedad's European commitments and Sevilla's domestic position will influence selection choices. Fixture congestion and weather conditions in early May may also affect playing style, with potential implications for whether the match trends toward lower or higher-scoring outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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