Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Shōnan Bellmāre and Vegalta Sendai.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Shōnan Bellmāre | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Draw (Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Vegalta Sendai) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Vegalta Sendai | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Shōnan Bellmāre will host Vegalta Sendai in a J2 League fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The match forms part of Japan's second-tier professional football competition, which operates under the J2 100 Year Vision League framework. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (Bellmāre victory) at 42%, reflecting modest backing for the home side despite their venue advantage.
Bellmāre and Sendai occupy different positions within J2's competitive hierarchy. Bellmāre have historically operated as mid-table performers with inconsistent form, whilst Vegalta Sendai represent a larger metropolitan market and have demonstrated greater stability in recent seasons. Historical matchups between these clubs show competitive balance rather than dominance by either party. The 42% probability suggests traders view this as a relatively open contest, with the home advantage offset by Sendai's structural strength and recent trajectory.
Traders monitoring this market should track squad availability in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly injury updates to key players at both clubs. Fixture congestion in the J2 calendar—with matches often scheduled densely during spring months—affects fatigue levels and team selection. Recent form in April and early May will provide concrete data on momentum, as will any managerial changes or tactical shifts announced by either club. Weather conditions on match day, historically variable in May across Japan's regions, may influence playing style and outcomes. Settlement occurs immediately following the final whistle on 16 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Vegalta Sendai" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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