Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 24 at 4:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5) | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Shimizu S-Pulse will face Gamba Ōsaka on 24 May 2026 in a J1 League fixture as part of the 100 Year Vision League campaign. The match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, reflecting the Japan Standard Time kick-off. This market settles on whether additional betting markets will be offered for the fixture; the current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 32% probability, suggesting traders believe it more likely than not that no supplementary markets will materialise.
Historical precedent from J1 League fixtures shows that market proliferation depends on liquidity expectations and exchange capacity. Major derbies and title-deciding matches typically attract multiple derivative markets—goal scorer, corner counts, card totals—whilst mid-table clashes between Shimizu and Gamba often receive baseline coverage only. Shimizu finished mid-table in recent seasons whilst Gamba has shown inconsistent form; neither club commands the fixture-market density of Tokyo or Osaka's larger franchises. The 32% probability reflects this pattern: traders are pricing in a two-thirds likelihood that this May fixture receives standard settlement markets alone.
Catalysts for market expansion include late fixture scheduling changes, injury announcements affecting key players, or unexpected commercial partnerships driving retail interest. Polymarket's order book will adjust if either club confirms significant squad news in the weeks preceding the match. Fixture congestion in the J1 calendar may also influence whether exchange resources are allocated to supplementary markets, particularly if competing fixtures demand attention during the same settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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