Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game between JEF United Ichihara Chiba and FC Machida Zelvia, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Machida Zelvia | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
JEF United Ichihara Chiba will host FC Machida Zelvia in a J1 League fixture on 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing an extremely low likelihood of a specific halftime result materialising. This pricing emerges from real-time order flow rather than algorithmic consensus, meaning the probability reflects actual bids and asks placed by market participants today.
Halftime markets in J1 League matches historically show wide variance in execution, particularly when teams carry significant tactical flexibility into the interval. JEF United and Machida Zelvia operate at different points in the league table, which typically influences early-game tempo and defensive setup. The 4:00 AM ET kick-off time (afternoon local time in Japan) may affect squad rotation decisions and player availability, factors that shape opening-phase intensity. Recent J1 fixtures have demonstrated that halftime results depend heavily on early pressing intensity and set-piece execution within the first 20 minutes.
Traders should monitor team news releases through the settlement window closing on 10 May at 08:00 UTC, particularly injury confirmations or late lineup changes announced within 24 hours of kick-off. Weather conditions in the Chiba region and any fixture postponement announcements would directly impact settlement. Historical data on both sides' halftime performance records—particularly conversion rates in opening periods—remains relevant for assessing whether current pricing reflects available information or represents mispricing relative to comparable matchups.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $506 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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