Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 10 at 2:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Tōkyō (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
FC Tōkyō and Tōkyō Verdy are scheduled to meet on 10 May 2026 at 2:00 AM ET in a J1 League fixture under the 100 Year Vision framework. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this particular market contract or a structural absence of backing for the "yes" outcome at any price. This settlement window closes 10 May at 06:00 UTC, giving traders a narrow window to position ahead of kick-off.
The current zero probability is consistent with how niche or newly-listed J-League markets typically trade on Polymarket, where depth concentrates on major European fixtures. Historical precedent shows that low-liquidity Asian football markets often remain unpriced until significant volume enters, particularly when settlement occurs within hours of match start. The 100 Year Vision League designation suggests a special tournament format, which may further reduce mainstream attention from the core Polymarket user base.
Traders monitoring this fixture should track official J-League fixture confirmations and any late team news affecting squad availability. The 2:00 AM ET timing itself creates a practical constraint for Western traders, potentially explaining why the order book remains thin. Any material news regarding player injuries or weather conditions in Tōkyō would likely be reflected in the hours immediately before settlement, when Asian markets are active and information asymmetries narrow.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$35K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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